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    Baseline simulation for global wheat production with CIMMYTmega-environment specific cultivars

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    Date
    2016
    Author
    Gbegbelegbe, Sika
    Cammarano, Davide
    Asseng, S.
    Robertson, R.
    Chung, U.
    Adam, M.
    Abdalla, O.
    Payne, T.
    Reynolds, Matthew P.
    Sonder, Kai
    Shiferaw, B.
    Nelson, Gerald C.
    Type
    Journal Article
    Target Audience
    Scientists
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Climate change is expected to impact global food supply and food security by affecting growing conditions for agricultural production. Process-based dynamic growth models are important tools to estimate crop yields based on minimum inputs of climate, soil, crop management, and crop cultivar parameters. Using region-specific cultivar parameters is critical when applying crop models at a global scale because cultivars vary in response to climate conditions, soils, and crop management. In this study, parameters were developed for modern cultivars representing all 17 CIMMYT wheat Mega Environments (MEs) using field experimental data and genetic cultivar relationships for the CROPSIM-CERES model in DSSAT v 4.5 (Decision-Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer). Cultivar performance was tested with independent CIMMYT breeding trial field experiments across several locations. Then crop simulations were carried out at 0.5 × 0.5 ° pixels for global wheat-growing areas, using cultivars representing MEs, soil information, region-specific crop management, and initial soil conditions. Aggregated simulated wheat yields and production were compared to reported country yields and production from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistics, resulting in a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.3 t/ha for yield and 2.2 M t/country for country production. Some of the simulated errors are relatively large at country level because of uncertainties in pixel information for climate, soil, and crop management input and partly because of crop model uncertainties. In addition, FAO yield statistics have uncertainties because of incomplete farm reports or poor estimates. Nevertheless, this new cultivar-specific, partially-validated global baseline simulation enables new studies on issues of food security, agricultural technology, and breeding advancement impacts combined with climate change at a global scale.
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010
    Multi standard citation
    Permanent link to this item
    https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/1246
    Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010
    IITA Subjects
    Climate Change; Food Security
    Agrovoc Terms
    Grass; Climate Change; Food Security; Wheats
    Regions
    Africa; East Africa; Latin America; Southeast Asia
    Countries
    Chile; India; Mexico; Sudan
    Journals
    Field Crops Research
    Collections
    • Journal and Journal Articles4127
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