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Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on small and medium scale enterprise: evidence from Nigeria.
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This paper examines the effect of COVID-19 related cases and lockdown measures on the issues related to Small and Medium Scale Enterprise in Nigeria. Using an electronic data collection approach, this study analyzes the data using the linear probability model to estimate the effect of the pandemic on the entrepreneurs and model the factors influencing coping strategies using a multivariate probit model. We found that majority of the entrepreneurs have been affected (both severely and slightly) by the COVID-19 pandemics through the partial and total lockdown and movement restrictions. We found that the COVID-19 pandemic's effect differs by sector of the economy (agriculture versus non-agriculture). For instance, partial lockdown measures had an increasing likelihood effect on low sales among the enterprises especially for the non-agricultural sector but there is a contrary result in the context of the food and agriculture sector. In addition, partial lockdown increases the likelihood of switching approaches of business (coping strategies) whereas total lockdown has a negative influence on the coping strategies. One of the policy implications of our study is the need to address social protection approaches (such as palliative measures) which can help to cushion the effect on the pandemic on the Small and Medium Scale Enterprise in Nigeria.