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Baseline simulation for global wheat production with CIMMYTmega-environment specific cultivars

dc.contributor.authorGbegbelegbe, Sika
dc.contributor.authorCammarano, Davide
dc.contributor.authorAsseng, S.
dc.contributor.authorRobertson, R.
dc.contributor.authorChung, U.
dc.contributor.authorAdam, M.
dc.contributor.authorAbdalla, O.
dc.contributor.authorPayne, T.
dc.contributor.authorReynolds, Matthew P.
dc.contributor.authorSonder, Kai
dc.contributor.authorShiferaw, B.
dc.contributor.authorNelson, Gerald C.
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-04T11:03:49Z
dc.date.available2019-12-04T11:03:49Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.citationGbegbelegbe, S., Cammarano, D., Asseng, S., Robertson, R., Chung, U., Adam, M., ... & Shiferaw, B. (2016). Baseline simulation for global wheat production with CIMMYT mega-environment specific cultivars. Field Crops Research.
dc.identifier.issn0378-4290
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/1246
dc.descriptionPublished online: 4 August 2016
dc.description.abstractClimate change is expected to impact global food supply and food security by affecting growing conditions for agricultural production. Process-based dynamic growth models are important tools to estimate crop yields based on minimum inputs of climate, soil, crop management, and crop cultivar parameters. Using region-specific cultivar parameters is critical when applying crop models at a global scale because cultivars vary in response to climate conditions, soils, and crop management. In this study, parameters were developed for modern cultivars representing all 17 CIMMYT wheat Mega Environments (MEs) using field experimental data and genetic cultivar relationships for the CROPSIM-CERES model in DSSAT v 4.5 (Decision-Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer). Cultivar performance was tested with independent CIMMYT breeding trial field experiments across several locations. Then crop simulations were carried out at 0.5 × 0.5 ° pixels for global wheat-growing areas, using cultivars representing MEs, soil information, region-specific crop management, and initial soil conditions. Aggregated simulated wheat yields and production were compared to reported country yields and production from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) statistics, resulting in a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.3 t/ha for yield and 2.2 M t/country for country production. Some of the simulated errors are relatively large at country level because of uncertainties in pixel information for climate, soil, and crop management input and partly because of crop model uncertainties. In addition, FAO yield statistics have uncertainties because of incomplete farm reports or poor estimates. Nevertheless, this new cultivar-specific, partially-validated global baseline simulation enables new studies on issues of food security, agricultural technology, and breeding advancement impacts combined with climate change at a global scale.
dc.format.extent1-14
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectGrass
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectFood Security
dc.subjectWheats
dc.titleBaseline simulation for global wheat production with CIMMYTmega-environment specific cultivars
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.description.versionPeer Review
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Florida
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Food Policy Research Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationWorld Agroforestry Centre
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
cg.contributor.affiliationJames Hutton Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center
cg.contributor.affiliationCentre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
cg.contributor.affiliationWorld Bank
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Illinois
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionEast Africa
cg.coverage.regionLatin America
cg.coverage.regionSoutheast Asia
cg.coverage.countryChile
cg.coverage.countryIndia
cg.coverage.countryMexico
cg.coverage.countrySudan
cg.identifier.urlhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country institute
cg.iitasubjectClimate Change
cg.iitasubjectFood Security
cg.journalField Crops Research
cg.howpublishedFormally Published
cg.accessibilitystatusLimited Access
local.dspaceid78509
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010


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