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    Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia

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    S17ArtBergerSmallholderInthomNodev.pdf (704.8Kb)
    Date
    2017-07-18
    Author
    Berger, T.
    Troost, C.
    Assfaw Wossen, T.
    Latynskiy, E.
    Tesfaye, K.
    Gbegbelegbe, Sika
    Type
    Journal Article
    Target Audience
    Scientists
    Metadata
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    Abstract/Description
    Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent-based simulation package Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS) to capture nonseparable production and consumption decisions at household level, considering livestock and eucalyptus sales for consumption smoothing, as well as farmer responses to policy interventions. We find the promotion of new maize and wheat varieties to be an effective adaptation option, on average, especially when accompanied by policy interventions such as credit and fertilizer subsidy. We also find that the effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite different across the heterogeneous smallholder population in Ethiopia. This implies that policy assessments based on average farm households may mislead policy makers to adhere to interventions that are beneficial on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular needs of poor and food insecure farmers.
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/agec.12367
    Multi standard citation
    Permanent link to this item
    https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/1966
    Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/agec.12367
    IITA Subjects
    Climate Change; Food Security; Smallholder Farmers
    Agrovoc Terms
    Climate Change; Prices; Production Data; Farm-Level Modeling; Mixed Rainfed Agriculture; Multiagent Systems; Openmpi; Uncertainty; Smallholder Farmer
    Regions
    Africa; East Africa
    Countries
    Ethiopia
    Journals
    Agricultural Economics
    Collections
    • Journal and Journal Articles4835
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