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Climate warming causes declines in crop yields and lowers school attendance rates in Central Africa

dc.contributor.authorFuller, T.L.
dc.contributor.authorClee, P.R.S.
dc.contributor.authorNjabo, K.Y.
dc.contributor.authorTróchez, A.
dc.contributor.authorMorgan, K.
dc.contributor.authorMeñe, D.B.
dc.contributor.authorAnthony, N.M.
dc.contributor.authorGonder, M.K.
dc.contributor.authorAllen, W.R.
dc.contributor.authorHanna, R.
dc.contributor.authorSmith, T.B.
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-04T11:10:24Z
dc.date.available2019-12-04T11:10:24Z
dc.date.issued2018-01-01
dc.identifier.citationFuller, T.L., Clee, P.R.S., Njabo, K.Y., Tróchez, A., Morgan, K., Meñe, D.B., ... & Smith, T.B. (2018). Climate warming causes declines in crop yields and lowers school attendance rates in Central Africa. Science of the Total Environment, 610-611, 503-510.
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/2128
dc.descriptionPublished online: 19 August 2017.
dc.description.abstractAlthough a number of recent studies suggest that climate associated shifts in agriculture are affecting social and economic systems, there have been relatively few studies of these effects in Africa. Such studies would be particularly useful in Central Africa, where the impacts of climate warming are predicted to be high but coincide with an area with low adaptive capacity. Focusing on plantain (Musa paradisiaca), we assess whether recent climate change has led to reduced yields. Analysis of annual temperature between 1950 and 2013 indicated a 0.8 °C temperature increase over this 63-year period - a trend that is also observed in monthly temperatures in the last twenty years. From 1991 to 2011, there was a 43% decrease in plantain productivity in Central Africa, which was explained by shifts in temperature (R2 = 0.68). This decline may have reduced rural household wealth and decreased parental investment in education. Over the past two decades, there was a six month decrease in the duration of school attendance, and the decline was tightly linked to plantain yield (R2 = 0.82). By 2080, mean annual temperature is expected to increase at least 2 °C in Central Africa, and our models predict a concomitant decrease of 39% in plantain yields and 51% in education outcomes, relative to the 1991 baseline. These predictions should be seen as a call-to-action for policy interventions such as farmer training programs to enhance the adaptive capacity of food production systems to mitigate impacts on rural income and education.
dc.description.sponsorshipPartnerships for International Research and Education
dc.format.extent503-510
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectEducation
dc.subjectPlantains
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectFood Security
dc.subjectSchool Attendance
dc.subjectCrop Yields
dc.titleClimate warming causes declines in crop yields and lowers school attendance rates in Central Africa
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.description.versionPeer Review
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.contributor.crpIntegrated Systems for the Humid Tropics
cg.contributor.crpRoots, Tubers and Bananas
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of California
cg.contributor.affiliationDrexel University
cg.contributor.affiliationGraduate School of Education and Information Studies, USA.
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of New Orleans
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionCentral Africa
cg.coverage.countryCameroon
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research institute
cg.iitasubjectClimate Change
cg.iitasubjectFood Security
cg.journalScience of the Total Environment
cg.howpublishedFormally Published
cg.accessibilitystatusLimited Access
local.dspaceid90674
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.041


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