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How future climatic uncertainty and biotic stressors might influence the sustainability of African vegetable production

dc.contributor.authorKeatinge, J.D.H.
dc.contributor.authorLedesma, D.R.
dc.contributor.authorHughes, Jacqueline d'Arros
dc.contributor.authorKeatinge, Fergus J.D.
dc.contributor.authorHauser, S.
dc.contributor.authorTraore, P.C.S.
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-04T11:30:14Z
dc.date.available2019-12-04T11:30:14Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.citationKeatinge, J.D.H., Ledesma, D.R., Hughes, J.d'A., Keatinge, F.J.D., Hauser, S. & Traore, P.C.S. (2018). How future climatic uncertainty and biotic stressors might influence the sustainability of African vegetable production. Acta Horticulturae, 1225, 23-42.
dc.identifier.issn0567-7572
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/5232
dc.description.abstractThe study was conducted to determine whether likely global climatic uncertainty in the future will pose substantive risk to small-scale vegetable producers in Africa, and to consider whether climate change threatens the development and sustainability of improved vegetable horticultural systems in Africa. Annual average air temperature and rainfall totals were assessed over the period 1975-2014 or, where possible, for rainfall for longer periods approaching 100 years; the trends in these data sets were determined through linear regression techniques. Predictions of the likely values of annual average air temperatures in the next 25, 50, 75 and 100 years were made. Considerable variability in trends is reported ranging from extremely fast warming in Tunis, Tunisia contrasting with slight cooling in Bamako, Mali. Annual variability in rainfall was substantive but there were no long-term trends of consequence, even when considered over the last 100 years. Consequently, the sustainability of vegetable production will be threatened mostly by changes in pest (e.g., weeds, insects, fungi, bacteria and viruses) damage to crops in small-scale production systems. A call is made for national governments to give these issues enhanced priority in the distribution of future research and capacity-building resources, as most of these production stressors are under-researched and evident solutions to such problems are not currently available.
dc.format.extent23-42
dc.language.isoen
dc.rightsCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dc.subjectAnnual
dc.subjectTemperature
dc.subjectRainfall
dc.subjectDiseases
dc.subjectPests
dc.subjectHorticultural
dc.subjectSystems
dc.titleHow future climatic uncertainty and biotic stressors might influence the sustainability of African vegetable production
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.description.versionPeer Review
cg.contributor.crpRoots, Tubers and Bananas
cg.contributor.affiliationWorld Vegetable Center
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Rice Research Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Florida
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionWest Africa
cg.coverage.countryMali
cg.coverage.countryNigeria
cg.creator.identifierStefan Hauser: 0000-0002-6329-7783
cg.researchthemeNATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research institute
cg.iitasubjectNatural Resource Management
cg.journalActa Horticulturae
cg.howpublishedFormally Published
cg.accessibilitystatusLimited Access
local.dspaceid103082
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.17660/ActaHortic.2018.1225.4


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