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dc.contributor.authorHaile, M.G.
dc.contributor.authorAssfaw Wossen, T.
dc.contributor.authorKalkuhl, M.
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-04T11:36:18Z
dc.date.available2019-12-04T11:36:18Z
dc.date.issued2019-08
dc.identifier.citationHaile, M. G., Assfaw Wossen, T. & Kalkuhl, M. (2019). Access to information, price expectations and welfare: the role of mobile phone adoption in Ethiopia. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 145, 82-92.
dc.identifier.issn0040-1625
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/6186
dc.description.abstractUsing household survey data from rural Ethiopia, this study explores the role of mobile telephony in smallholder farmers' price expectation formations. The empirical findings suggest that farmers who own mobile phones and who reside closer to markets make smaller price forecasting errors. The beneficial effect of mobile phones is stronger for households that reside farther away from grain markets, indicating that mobile telephony provides information that at least partially compensates location-disadvantaged farmers. Holding all else constant, mobile phone ownership is associated with about a 30% decrease in the conditional mean of a smallholder's price prediction error, whereas an additional kilometer from nearby grain markets reduces the expected prediction error by about 10%. The results are robust across different econometric estimators as well as the use of alternative measurements of price forecasting error. Our simulation analysis shows that accurate information about grain price developments could save a significant welfare loss for smallholders. Depending on their income levels, the analysis hints that smallholder farmers would be willing to pay between 7% and 20% of their income to improve the price signal, in other words, to avoid uncertainty on producer prices. Our work emphasizes an alternative way to deal with price volatility and improve farmers' welfare that focuses on improving access to information rather than reducing volatility per se.
dc.description.sponsorshipFederal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany
dc.format.extent82-92
dc.language.isoen
dc.rightsCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dc.subjectPrices
dc.subjectForecasting
dc.subjectSmallholders
dc.subjectFarmers
dc.subjectMarket Research
dc.subjectCommunication Technology
dc.titleAccess to information, price expectations and welfare: the role of mobile phone adoption in Ethiopia
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.description.versionPeer Review
cg.contributor.crpMaize
cg.contributor.crpRoots, Tubers and Bananas
cg.contributor.affiliationWorld Bank
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionEast Africa
cg.coverage.countryEthiopia
cg.creator.identifierTesfamicheal Wossen Assfaw: 0000-0002-3672-2676
cg.researchthemeSOCIAL SCIENCE & AGRICUSINESS
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research institute
cg.iitasubjectAgribusiness
cg.iitasubjectSmallholder Farmers
cg.journalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
cg.howpublishedFormally Published
cg.accessibilitystatusLimited Access
local.dspaceid107445
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.04.017


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