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Suitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates

dc.contributor.authorManners, R.
dc.contributor.authorVandamme, E.
dc.contributor.authorAdewopo, J.
dc.contributor.authorThornton, P.
dc.contributor.authorFriedmann, M.
dc.contributor.authorCarpentier, S.C.
dc.contributor.authorEzui, K.S.
dc.contributor.authorThiele, G.
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-20T10:54:31Z
dc.date.available2022-09-20T10:54:31Z
dc.date.issued2021-08
dc.identifier.citationManners, R., Vandamme, E., Adewopo, J., Thornton, P., Friedmann, M., Carpentier, S., ... & Thiele, G. (2021). Suitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates. Agricultural Systems 193: 103246, 1-15.
dc.identifier.issn0308-521X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/7774
dc.description.abstractContext Climate change is projected to negatively impact food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. The magnitude of these impacts is expected to be amplified by the extensive reliance on rainfed agriculture and the prevalence of subsistence farming. In the Great Lakes Region of Central Africa, smallholder farming households are largely dependent on root, tuber and banana crops. However, the potential impacts of various climate change scenarios on these crops are not well reported. Yet, data-rich insights about the future impacts of climate change on these crops and the adaptive capacity of food systems in the Great Lakes Region is critical to inform research and development investments towards regional climate change adaptation. Objectives We aimed to gain insights of potential impacts of climate change on root, tuber, and banana crops in the Great Lakes Region, specifically investigating changes to localised crop suitability, planting dates, and identifying potential ‘climate-proof’ variety types of each crop for specific geographies. Methods We developed a modified version of the EcoCrop model to analyse the suitability of future climates for four key root, tuber, and banana crops (banana, cassava, potato, and sweetpotato) and a suite of varieties for each (typical, heat-tolerant, drought-tolerant, and early maturing). The model considers only the direct impacts of climate change on crop suitability. It does not consider how climate change impacts crop suitability by affecting the occurrence of extreme weather events or indirect effects on incidence and severity of pest and disease outbreaks. Results and conclusions Our results demonstrate that climate change will be somewhat favourable to root, tuber, and banana-based systems, with only widespread negative impacts seen for potato. These changes should be qualified by the observation that in most cases the environmental suitability for banana, cassava, and sweetpotato will remain constant or improve if farmers shift planting schedules. Location- and crop-dependent shifts to different variety types were found to be effective in improving suitability under future climates. Significance Data driven insights generated from this work can be used as a first step in developing spatially explicit recommendations for both farmers and decision-makers on how to adapt to climate change and plan investment in the research needed to adapt root, tuber, and banana-based livelihoods and systems to those long-term changes.
dc.description.sponsorshipCGIAR Trust Fund
dc.description.sponsorshipBelgian Directorate General for Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Aid
dc.format.extent1-15
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectBananas
dc.subjectCassava
dc.subjectPotatoes
dc.subjectSweet Potatoes
dc.subjectCrop Production
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectAdaptation
dc.subjectFood Systems
dc.subjectSmallholders
dc.subjectFarmers
dc.subjectDrought Tolerance
dc.subjectPests
dc.subjectDiseases
dc.subjectHouseholds
dc.titleSuitability of root, tuber, and banana crops in Central Africa can be favoured under future climates
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.contributor.crpRoots, Tubers and Bananas
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Potato Center
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationBioversity International
cg.contributor.affiliationAfrican Plant Nutrition Institute, Kenya
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionCentral Africa
cg.coverage.regionEast Africa
cg.coverage.countryBurundi
cg.coverage.countryDemocratic Republic of the Congo
cg.coverage.countryKenya
cg.coverage.countryMalawi
cg.coverage.countryRwanda
cg.coverage.countryTanzania
cg.coverage.countryUganda
cg.coverage.hubCentral Africa Hub
cg.researchthemeNatural Resource Management
cg.identifier.bibtexciteidMANNERS:2021
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country institute
cg.iitasubjectAgronomy
cg.iitasubjectBanana
cg.iitasubjectCassava
cg.iitasubjectClimate Change
cg.iitasubjectFood Systems
cg.iitasubjectPlant Breeding
cg.iitasubjectPlant Production
cg.iitasubjectSmallholder Farmers
cg.journalAgricultural Systems
cg.notesPublished online: 14 Aug 2021
cg.accessibilitystatusOpen Access
cg.reviewstatusPeer Review
cg.usagerightslicenseCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103246
cg.iitaauthor.identifierPhilip Thornton: 0000-0002-1854-0182
cg.iitaauthor.identifierJulius Adewopo: 0000-0003-4831-2823
cg.iitaauthor.identifiersebastien carpentier: 0000-0002-7389-6405
cg.iitaauthor.identifierKODJOVI SENAM EZUI: 0000-0002-6898-6481
cg.futureupdate.requiredNo
cg.identifier.issue: 103246
cg.identifier.volume193
cg.contributor.acknowledgementsWe would like to thank everyone who provided valuable advice during the preparation of this work, specifically, Robert Mwanga, David Ramirez, Johan Ninanya, Pepijn van Oort, Anette Pronk, and Ghislain Tepa-Yotto. We would also like to thank Christopher Butler for editing the manuscript. We would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers. This research was undertaken as part of, and funded jointly by, the CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB) and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which are both carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund. For details, please visit https://www.cgiar.org/funders/ and https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. Additional funding support for this work was provided by the Belgian Directorate General for Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Aid (DGDC) through the Consortium for Improving Agricultural Livelihoods in Central Africa (CIALCA – www.cialca.org). The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of all these funding organisations.


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