The Russia–Ukraine conflict has prompted calls for resource diversification and wheat self-sufficiency programmes in import-dependent regions. Here we show that this approach would have minimal impact on poor Nigerians as wheat constitutes only 4% of their total food consumption and 8% of their starchy staple consumption. In contrast, millets, rice, cassava and tubers are ten times more important—highlighting the need for careful consideration of country-context consumption patterns in response to external food system shocks.

We are grateful for comments by the reviewers, and for support from the US Agency for International Development Nigeria Agricultural Policy Activity, the US Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture, and MSU AgBioResearch (projects MIC02593 and MICL02532). The contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Government or MSU AgBioResearch.

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00722-z

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Lenis Liverpool-Tasiehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2990-5888

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00722-z

Social Science and Agribusiness

Agribusiness; Food Security; Food Systems; Livelihoods

Food Security; Development Economics; Wheat; Food Consumption; Poverty Alleviation; Nigeria

Africa; West Africa

Nigeria

Headquarters and Western Africa Hub

Nature Food