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Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa

dc.contributor.authorAlimagham, S.
dc.contributor.authorvan Loon, M.P.
dc.contributor.authorRamirez-Villegas, J.
dc.contributor.authorAdjei-Nsiah, S.
dc.contributor.authorBaijukya, F.
dc.contributor.authorBala, A.
dc.contributor.authorChikowo, R.
dc.contributor.authorSilva, J.V.
dc.contributor.authorSoule, A.M.
dc.contributor.authorTaulya, G.
dc.contributor.authorTenorio, F.A.
dc.contributor.authorTesfaye, K.
dc.contributor.authorvan Ittersum, M.K.
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-04T08:51:52Z
dc.date.available2024-03-04T08:51:52Z
dc.date.issued2024-02-24
dc.identifier.citationAlimagham, S., van Loon, M.P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Adjei-Nsiah, S., Baijukya, F., Bala, A., ... & van Ittersum, M. (2024). Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Agronomy, 155: 127137, 1-13.
dc.identifier.issn1161-0301
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/8417
dc.description.abstractSub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) demand for cereals is projected to more than double by 2050. Climate change is generally assumed to add to the future challenges of the needed productivity increase. This study aimed to assess (i) the potential climate change impact on four key rainfed cereals (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) in ten SSA countries namely Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia using local data and national expertise, and (ii) the potential of cultivar adaptation to climate change for the four crops. We assessed effects on rainfed potential cereal yields per crop and aggregated these to regional level in West (WA), East and Southern Africa (ESA). We made use of a rigorous agronomic dataset for 120 locations in the ten countries and performed simulations of rainfed potential yield (Yw) using bias-corrected climate data from five GCMs, three time periods (1995–2014 as baseline, 2040–2059, and 2080–2099) and two scenarios (SSP3–7.0 as business as usual and SSP5–8.5 as pessimistic). We tested whether better adapted cultivars (taken from the pool of cultivars currently employed in the ten countries) could compensate for climate change. Results showed that climate change decreased aggregated Yw of cereals by around 6% in ESA by 2050, whereas projected impacts in WA were not significant. In 2090, however, the projected impact of climate change in both WA (􀀀 24%) and ESA (􀀀 9%). was significant. Cultivar adaptation partially compensated the negative impact of climate change. With the adaptation approach, 87% and 82% of potential production in ESA was estimated to occur with higher average Yw and lower variability in, respectively, 2050 and 2090, compared to the baseline period. In WA 67% and 43% of the potential production was estimated to experience such positive effects in 2050 and 2090, respectively. These results highlight remaining adaptation challenges for 13% (2050) and 18% (2090) in ESA and 33% (2050) and 57% (2090) in WA for potential production. In the context of the large yield gaps in SSA, this is likely to further increase challenges to meet cereal self-sufficiency for SSA, especially in WA.
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union Commission
dc.format.extent1-13
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectCultivars
dc.subjectCrop Modelling
dc.subjectMaturity
dc.subjectYields
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectFood Security
dc.subjectSub-Saharan Africa
dc.titleClimate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.contributor.affiliationWageningen University & Research
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Ghana
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationFederal University of Technology Minna
cg.contributor.affiliationInstitut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Niger
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Nebraska–Lincoln
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionAfrica South of Sahara
cg.coverage.countryBurkina Faso (Upper Volta)
cg.coverage.countryEthiopia
cg.coverage.countryGhana
cg.coverage.countryKenya
cg.coverage.countryMali
cg.coverage.countryNiger
cg.coverage.countryNigeria
cg.coverage.countryTanzania
cg.coverage.countryUganda
cg.coverage.countryZambia
cg.coverage.hubEastern Africa Hub
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country institute
cg.iitasubjectClimate Change
cg.iitasubjectCrop Systems
cg.iitasubjectFood Security
cg.journalEuropean Journal of Agronomy
cg.notesOpen Access Article
cg.accessibilitystatusOpen Access
cg.reviewstatusPeer Review
cg.usagerightslicenseCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 0.0)
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2024.127137
cg.iitaauthor.identifierSamuel Adjei-Nsiah: 0000-0002-7394-4913
cg.iitaauthor.identifierFrederick Baijukya: 0000-0003-2586-2013
cg.iitaauthor.identifierGodfrey Taulya: 0000-0002-5690-0492
cg.futureupdate.requiredNo
cg.identifier.issue127137
cg.identifier.volume155


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