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Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa

dc.contributor.authorKephe, P.N.
dc.contributor.authorMkuhlani, S.
dc.contributor.authorRusere, F.
dc.contributor.authorChemura, A.
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-14T09:25:10Z
dc.date.available2024-10-14T09:25:10Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.identifier.citationKephe, P.N., Mkuhlani, S., Rusere, F. & Chemura, A. (2024). Use of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa. PLoS ONE, 19(5): e0301254, 1-19.
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/8596
dc.description.abstractOil seed crops are the second most important field crops after cereals in the agricultural economy globally. The use and demand for oilseed crops such as groundnut, soybean and sunflower have grown significantly, but climate change is expected to alter the agroecological conditions required for oilseed crop production. This study aims to present an approach that utilizes decision-making tools to assess the potential climate change impacts on groundnut, soybean and sunflower yields and the greenhouse gas emissions from the management of the crops. The Decision Support Tool for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.7), a dynamic crop model and the Cool Farm Tool, a GHG calculator, was used to simulate yields and estimate GHG emissions from these crops, respectively. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), three nitrogen (0, 75, and 150 kg/ha) and phosphorous (0, 30 and 60 P kg/ha) fertilizer rates at three sites in Limpopo, South Africa (Ofcolaco, Syferkuil and Punda Maria) were used in field trials for calibrating the models. The highest yield was achieved by sunflower across all crops, years and sites. Soybean yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050, except at Ofcolaco, where yield increases of at least 15.6% is projected under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Positive climate change impacts are predicted for groundnut at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil by 2030 and 2050, while negative impacts with losses of up to 50% are projected under RCP8.5 by 2050 at Punda Maria. Sunflower yield is projected to decrease across all sites and scenarios by 2030 and 2050. A comparison of the climate change impacts across sites shows that groundnut yield is projected to increase under climate change while notable yield losses are projected for sunflower and soybean. GHG emissions from the management of each crop showed that sunflower and groundnut production had the highest and lowest emissions across all sites respectively. With positive climate change impacts, a reduction of GHG emissions per ton per hectare was projected for groundnuts at Ofcolaco and Syferkuil and for sunflower in Ofcolaco in the future. However, the carbon footprint from groundnut is expected to increase by 40 to 107% in Punda Maria for the period up to 2030 and between 70–250% for 2050, with sunflower following a similar trend. We conclude that climate change will potentially reduce yield for oilseed crops while management will increase emissions. Therefore, in designing adaptation measures, there is a need to consider emission effects to gain a holistic understanding of how both climate change impacts on crops and mitigation efforts could be targeted.
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Limpopo
dc.description.sponsorshipVLIR-UOS
dc.format.extent1-19
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectOilseeds
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectGrain Legumes
dc.subjectFood Security
dc.subjectFarming Systems
dc.subjectSmallholder Farmers
dc.titleUse of modelling tools to assess climate change impacts on smallholder oil seed yields in South Africa
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.contributor.affiliationPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Witwatersrand
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Twente
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Africa
cg.coverage.countrySouth Africa
cg.coverage.hubEastern Africa Hub
cg.identifier.bibtexciteidKEPHE:2024
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country institute
cg.iitasubjectAgronomy
cg.iitasubjectClimate Change
cg.iitasubjectFarming Systems
cg.iitasubjectFood Security
cg.iitasubjectGrain Legumes
cg.iitasubjectPlant Breeding
cg.iitasubjectPlant Production
cg.iitasubjectSmallholder Farmers
cg.journalPLoS ONE
cg.notesOpen Access Journal
cg.accessibilitystatusOpen Access
cg.reviewstatusPeer Review
cg.usagerightslicenseCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 0.0)
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0301254
cg.futureupdate.requiredNo
cg.identifier.issue5: e0301254
cg.identifier.volume19
cg.contributor.acknowledgementsWe are grateful to the officials at Syferkuil and farmers at Ofcolaco and Punda Maria for their support during the experimentation period.


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