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Assessment of climate change impact and adaptation strategy for millet in the Sudano‑Sahelian region of Niger

dc.contributor.authorTofa, A.I.
dc.contributor.authorKamara, A.Y.
dc.contributor.authorMohamed, A.M.L.
dc.contributor.authorGarba, M.
dc.contributor.authorSouley, A.M.
dc.contributor.authorSalissou, H.
dc.contributor.authorKapran, B.I.
dc.contributor.authorAbdoulaye, T.
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-01T10:34:55Z
dc.date.available2024-11-01T10:34:55Z
dc.date.issued2024-10-03
dc.identifier.citationTofa, A.I., Kamara, A.Y., Mohamed, A.M.L., Garba, M., Souley, A.M., Salissou, H., ... & Abdoulaye, T. (2024). Assessment of climate change impact and adaptation strategy for millet in the Sudano-Sahelian region of Niger. Regional Environmental Change, 24(4): 151, 1-15.
dc.identifier.issn1436-3798
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/8628
dc.description.abstractPearl millet is an important food and fodder crop in West African semi-arid regions. Climate change is projected to have a significant impact on the productivity of the crops in these regions. Adaptation strategies to sustain agricultural production are therefore urgently required to sustain millet productivity. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CERES-Millet model was used to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on millet in Niger. Three millet varieties and five sowing windows were evaluated as climate change adaptation strategies. We found that temperature and rainfall will increase in the future relative to baseline conditions. The impact of climate change varied with the agroecological zone (AEZ) with higher yield reduction in the Sahel than in the other AEZs. The yield of early-maturing variety (CHAKTI) is projected to decline by 30–72% in all locations and AEZs under all scenarios. Replacing the reference variety HKP with CHAKTI is projected to reduce yields by 35–39% in the Sudan AEZ, 24–32% in the Sudan Sahel AEZ, and 11–18% in the Sahel AEZs. Conversely, using H80-10GR is expected to improve yields by 0–1%, 2–3%, and 0–2% in the respective AEZs, indicating that H80-10GR can be used along with the reference variety (HKP) under future climate. The optimal sowing window for maximum yields under current conditions is consistently identified as June 15–21 across all AEZs, with yield declining significantly with delayed sowing. Future climate scenarios show different impacts by AEZ and climate scenarios. In Sudan AEZ, early sowing on June 1–14 can improve grain yield under RCP 4.5 but may lead to drastic declines by the end of the century under more severe RCP 8.5 conditions for all varieties. In Sudan-Sahel and Sahel AEZs, the optimal sowing window for all varieties is July 1–7 under all climate scenarios. Our results show that early maturity did not result in yield advantage under climate change.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
dc.format.extent1-15
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectAgriculture
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectYields
dc.subjectFood Security
dc.subjectCrops
dc.subjectAdaptation
dc.subjectProductivity
dc.subjectVarieties
dc.subjectNiger
dc.titleAssessment of climate change impact and adaptation strategy for millet in the Sudano‑Sahelian region of Niger
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.contributor.crpGrain Legumes
cg.contributor.crpMaize
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationInstitut National de La Recherche Agronomique du Niger
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionWest Africa
cg.coverage.countryNiger
cg.coverage.hubHeadquarters and Western Africa Hub
cg.researchthemePlant Production and Health
cg.identifier.bibtexciteidTOFA:2024
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country institute
cg.iitasubjectAgronomy
cg.iitasubjectClimate Change
cg.iitasubjectCrop Systems
cg.iitasubjectFood Security
cg.iitasubjectPlant Breeding
cg.iitasubjectPlant Production
cg.journalRegional Environmental Change
cg.accessibilitystatusLimited Access
cg.reviewstatusPeer Review
cg.usagerightslicenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-024-02313-5
cg.iitaauthor.identifierAbdullahi Ibrahim Tofa: 0000-0002-7617-4395
cg.iitaauthor.identifierAlpha Kamara: 0000-0002-1844-2574
cg.iitaauthor.identifierGarba Maman: 0000-0002-3377-3064
cg.iitaauthor.identifierTahirou Abdoulaye: 0000-0002-8072-1363
cg.futureupdate.requiredNo
cg.identifier.issue4:151
cg.identifier.volume24


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