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    Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

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    U16ArtVanittersumSubsaharanInthomDev.pdf (2.444Mb)
    Date
    2016-12-22
    Author
    Ittersum, Martin K. van
    Bussel, Lenny G. J. van
    Wolf, Joost
    Grassini, Patricio
    Wart, Justin van
    Guilpart, Nicolas
    Claessens, Lieven
    Groot, Hugo de
    Wiebe, Keith
    Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
    Yang, Haishun
    Boogaard, Hendrik L.
    Oort, Pepijn A.J. van
    Loon, Marloes P. van
    Saito, Kazuki
    Adimo, Ochieng
    Adjei-Nsiah, Samuel
    Alhassane, Agali
    Bala, Abdullahi
    Chikowo, Regis
    Kaizzi, Kayuki
    Kouressy, Mamoutou
    Makoi, Joachim H.J.R.
    Ouattara, Korodjouma
    Tesfaye Fantaye, Kindie
    Cassman, Kenneth G.
    Type
    Journal Article
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract/Description
    Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610359113
    Multi standard citation
    Permanent link to this item
    https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/1487
    Non-IITA Authors ORCID
    Martin van Ittersumhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8611-6781
    Nicolas Guilparthttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3804-0211
    Lieven Claessenshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2961-8990
    Keith Wiebehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6035-620X
    Pepijn van Oorthttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7617-5382
    Samuel Adjei-Nsiahhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7394-4913
    ALHASSANE Agalihttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1877-0367
    Abdullahi Balahttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1361-1786
    Korodjouma OUATTARAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3999-5853
    Kindie Tesfayehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7201-8053
    Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610359113
    Agrovoc Terms
    Food Security; Climate Change; Agriculture
    Regions
    Africa; Africa South Of Sahara
    Journals
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
    Collections
    • Journal and Journal Articles4835
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