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Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

dc.contributor.authorIttersum, Martin K. van
dc.contributor.authorBussel, Lenny G. J. van
dc.contributor.authorWolf, Joost
dc.contributor.authorGrassini, Patricio
dc.contributor.authorWart, Justin van
dc.contributor.authorGuilpart, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorClaessens, Lieven
dc.contributor.authorGroot, Hugo de
dc.contributor.authorWiebe, Keith
dc.contributor.authorMason-D'Croz, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorYang, Haishun
dc.contributor.authorBoogaard, Hendrik L.
dc.contributor.authorOort, Pepijn A.J. van
dc.contributor.authorLoon, Marloes P. van
dc.contributor.authorSaito, Kazuki
dc.contributor.authorAdimo, Ochieng
dc.contributor.authorAdjei-Nsiah, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorAlhassane, Agali
dc.contributor.authorBala, Abdullahi
dc.contributor.authorChikowo, Regis
dc.contributor.authorKaizzi, Kayuki
dc.contributor.authorKouressy, Mamoutou
dc.contributor.authorMakoi, Joachim H.J.R.
dc.contributor.authorOuattara, Korodjouma
dc.contributor.authorTesfaye Fantaye, Kindie
dc.contributor.authorCassman, Kenneth G.
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-04T11:04:43Z
dc.date.available2019-12-04T11:04:43Z
dc.date.issued2016-12-22
dc.identifier.citationvan Ittersum MK, van Bussel LGJ, Wolf J, Grassini P, van Wart J, Guilpart N, Claessens L, de Groot H, Wiebe K, Mason-D’Croz D, Yang H, Boogaard H, van Oort PAJ, van Loon MP, Saito K, Adimo O, Adjei-Nsiah S, Agali A, Bala A, Chikowo R, Kaizzi K, Kouressy M, Makoi JHJR, Ouattara K, Tesfaye K, Cassman KG. 2016. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? PNAS, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(52):14964–14969.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/1487
dc.description.abstractAlthough global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
dc.description.sponsorshipBill & Melinda Gates Foundation
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectFood Security
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectAgriculture
dc.titleCan sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
cg.contributor.crpPolicies, Institutions and Markets
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionAfrica South Of Sahara
cg.creator.identifierMartin van Ittersum: 0000-0001-8611-6781
cg.creator.identifierNicolas Guilpart: 0000-0003-3804-0211
cg.creator.identifierLieven Claessens: 0000-0003-2961-8990
cg.creator.identifierKeith Wiebe: 0000-0001-6035-620X
cg.creator.identifierPepijn van Oort: 0000-0001-7617-5382
cg.creator.identifierSamuel Adjei-Nsiah: 0000-0002-7394-4913
cg.creator.identifierALHASSANE Agali: 0000-0002-1877-0367
cg.creator.identifierAbdullahi Bala: 0000-0003-1361-1786
cg.creator.identifierKorodjouma OUATTARA: 0000-0003-3999-5853
cg.creator.identifierKindie Tesfaye: 0000-0002-7201-8053
cg.journalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
cg.accessibilitystatusOpen Access
local.dspaceid80708
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1610359113


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