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    Impact of climate change, weather extremes, and price risk on global food supply

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    S17ArtHaileImpactNothomNodev.pdf (867.5Kb)
    Date
    2017-06
    Author
    Haile, M.G.
    Wossen, T.
    Tesfaye, K.
    Braun, J. von
    Type
    Journal Article
    Target Audience
    Scientists
    Metadata
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    Abstract/Description
    We analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period 1961–2013. Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1–3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops—especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world’s key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes— in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation— during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security.
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41885-017-0005-2
    Multi standard citation
    Permanent link to this item
    https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/1891
    Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41885-017-0005-2
    IITA Subjects
    Climate Change; Food Security; Maize; Soybean
    Agrovoc Terms
    Food Supply; Climate Change; Weather Extremes; Price Volatility; Staple Crops; Global Crop Production; Maize; Wheat; Rice; Soybeans
    Journals
    Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
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    • Journal and Journal Articles5283
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