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Impact of climate change, weather extremes, and price risk on global food supply

dc.contributor.authorHaile, M.G.
dc.contributor.authorWossen, T.
dc.contributor.authorTesfaye, K.
dc.contributor.authorBraun, J. von
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-04T11:08:42Z
dc.date.available2019-12-04T11:08:42Z
dc.date.issued2017-06
dc.identifier.citationHaile, M.G., Wossen, T., Tesfaye, K & von Braun, J. (2017). Impact of climate change, weather extremes, and price risk on global food supply. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 1-21.
dc.identifier.issn2511-1280
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/1891
dc.descriptionPublished online: 06 May 2017
dc.description.abstractWe analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period 1961–2013. Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1–3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops—especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world’s key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes— in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation— during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security.
dc.format.extent55-75
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectFood Supply
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectWeather Extremes
dc.subjectPrice Volatility
dc.subjectStaple Crops
dc.subjectGlobal Crop Production
dc.subjectMaize
dc.subjectWheat
dc.subjectRice
dc.subjectSoybeans
dc.titleImpact of climate change, weather extremes, and price risk on global food supply
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.description.versionPeer Review
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Bonn
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research institute
cg.iitasubjectClimate Change
cg.iitasubjectFood Security
cg.iitasubjectMaize
cg.iitasubjectSoybean
cg.journalEconomics of Disasters and Climate Change
cg.howpublishedFormally Published
cg.accessibilitystatusLimited Access
local.dspaceid83915
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41885-017-0005-2


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