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    Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa

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    U19ArtGbegbelegbeExanteInthomNodev.pdf (1.649Mb)
    Date
    2019-05-16
    Author
    Gbegbelegbe, S.
    Alene, A.
    Kamara, A.
    Wiebe, K.
    Manyong, Victor M.
    Abdoulaye, T.
    Mkandawire, P.
    Type
    Journal Article
    Target Audience
    Scientists
    Metadata
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    Abstract/Description
    This study undertakes an ex‐ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processing sectors and low soybean yields, the region is currently importing about 70% of its consumption requirements. Based on the results from a geospatial bio‐economic modeling framework, soybean consumption in SSA is projected to more than double by 2050 compared to 2010 due in part to a rising population and rising incomes. On the other hand, supply from domestic production is projected to increase by 80% over the same period. Hence, by 2050, net imports into SSA would be nearly 4 times higher than supply from domestic production. Under a future drier climate, some of the production gains achieved through soybean research and extension would be lost and this would further worsen the soybean demand gap in SSA relative to the baseline. This study shows that relying on conventional breeding alone to increase soybean yields in SSA would not be enough to substantially reduce the future demand gap. A combination of promising innovations affecting the soybean value chain across SSA would be needed to close the soybean demand gap in SSA by 2050 under a drier future climate.
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fes3.172
    Multi standard citation
    Permanent link to this item
    https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/5846
    Non-IITA Authors ORCID
    Arega Alenehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2491-4603
    Alpha Kamarahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1844-2574
    Victor Manyonghttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2477-7132
    Tahirou Abdoulayehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8072-1363
    Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fes3.172
    Research Themes
    PLANT PRODUCTION & HEALTH; SOCIAL SCIENCE & AGRICUSINESS
    IITA Subjects
    Agribusiness; Grain Legumes; Impact Assessment; Plant Health; Plant Production; Soybean
    Agrovoc Terms
    Climate Change; Soybeans; Production; Africa South Of Sahara
    Regions
    Africa; Central Africa; East Africa; Southern Africa; West Africa
    Countries
    Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Ethiopia; Malawi; Nigeria; Rwanda; Tanzania; Zambia; Zimbabwe
    Journals
    Food and Energy Security
    Collections
    • Journal and Journal Articles4835
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