Rainfall is a major driver of food production in rainfed smallholder farming systems. This study was conducted to assess linear trends in (i) different daily rainfall amounts (<5, 5–10, 11–20, 21–40 and >40 mm∙day-1), and (ii) monthly and seasonal rainfall amounts. Drought was determined using the rainfall variability index. Daily rainfall data were derived from 18 meteorological stations in southern Africa. Daily rainfall was dominated by <5 mm∙day-1 followed by 5–10 mm∙day -1. Three locations experienced increasing linear trends of <5 mm∙day-1 amounts and two others in sub-humid region had increases in the >40 mm day -1 category. Semi-arid location experienced increasing trends in <5 and 5–10 mm∙day-1 events. A significant linear trend in seasonal rainfall occurred at two locations with decreasing rainfall (1.24 and 3 mm∙season-1). A 3 mm∙season-1 decrease in seasonal rainfall was experienced under semi-arid conditions. There were no apparent linear trends in monthly and seasonal rainfall at 15 of the 18 locations studied. Drought frequencies varied with location and were 50% or higher during the November–March growing season. Rainfall trends were location and agro-ecology specific, but most of the locations studied did not experience significant changes between the 1900s and 2000s.

This study has been embedded into the CGIAR Research Programme MAIZE, Flagship Sustainable intensification of smallholder farming systems. We acknowledge the CGIAR Fund Council and other donors for funding to the CGIAR Research Programme MAIZE. We thank the meteorological stations from the four countries for their contribution in generating rainfall data used in the study.

https://dx.doi.org/10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i4.3844

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https://dx.doi.org/10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i4.3844

Agronomy; Climate Change; Farming Systems; Food Security; Plant Breeding; Plant Production; Smallholder Farmers

Agriculture; Risk; Drought; Rainfed; Distribution; Farming Systems; Climate-Smart Agriculture; Rainfall

Africa; Southern Africa

Zimbabwe

Eastern Africa Hub

Water SA