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    Temporal rainfall trend analysis in different agro-ecological regions of southern Africa

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    Journal Article (587.1Kb)
    Date
    2021-10
    Author
    Mupangwa, W.
    Makanza, R.
    Chipindu, L.
    Moeletsi, M.
    Mkuhlani, S.
    Liben, F.
    Nyagumbo, I.
    Mutenje, M.
    Type
    Journal Article
    Review Status
    Peer Review
    Target Audience
    Scientists
    Metadata
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    Abstract/Description
    Rainfall is a major driver of food production in rainfed smallholder farming systems. This study was conducted to assess linear trends in (i) different daily rainfall amounts (<5, 5–10, 11–20, 21–40 and >40 mm∙day-1), and (ii) monthly and seasonal rainfall amounts. Drought was determined using the rainfall variability index. Daily rainfall data were derived from 18 meteorological stations in southern Africa. Daily rainfall was dominated by <5 mm∙day-1 followed by 5–10 mm∙day -1. Three locations experienced increasing linear trends of <5 mm∙day-1 amounts and two others in sub-humid region had increases in the >40 mm day -1 category. Semi-arid location experienced increasing trends in <5 and 5–10 mm∙day-1 events. A significant linear trend in seasonal rainfall occurred at two locations with decreasing rainfall (1.24 and 3 mm∙season-1). A 3 mm∙season-1 decrease in seasonal rainfall was experienced under semi-arid conditions. There were no apparent linear trends in monthly and seasonal rainfall at 15 of the 18 locations studied. Drought frequencies varied with location and were 50% or higher during the November–March growing season. Rainfall trends were location and agro-ecology specific, but most of the locations studied did not experience significant changes between the 1900s and 2000s.
    Acknowledgements
    This study has been embedded into the CGIAR Research Programme MAIZE, Flagship Sustainable intensification of smallholder farming systems. We acknowledge the CGIAR Fund Council and other donors for funding to the CGIAR Research Programme MAIZE. We thank the meteorological stations from the four countries for their contribution in generating rainfall data used in the study.
    https://dx.doi.org/10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i4.3844
    Multi standard citation
    Permanent link to this item
    https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/7332
    Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
    https://dx.doi.org/10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i4.3844
    IITA Subjects
    Agronomy; Climate Change; Farming Systems; Food Security; Plant Breeding; Plant Production; Smallholder Farmers
    Agrovoc Terms
    Agriculture; Risk; Drought; Rainfed; Distribution; Farming Systems; Climate-Smart Agriculture; Rainfall
    Regions
    Africa; Southern Africa
    Countries
    Zimbabwe
    Hubs
    Eastern Africa Hub
    Journals
    Water SA
    Collections
    • Journal and Journal Articles4835
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