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Temporal rainfall trend analysis in different agro-ecological regions of southern Africa

dc.contributor.authorMupangwa, W.
dc.contributor.authorMakanza, R.
dc.contributor.authorChipindu, L.
dc.contributor.authorMoeletsi, M.
dc.contributor.authorMkuhlani, S.
dc.contributor.authorLiben, F.
dc.contributor.authorNyagumbo, I.
dc.contributor.authorMutenje, M.
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-01T10:04:02Z
dc.date.available2022-02-01T10:04:02Z
dc.date.issued2021-10
dc.identifier.citationMupangwa, W., Makanza, R., Chipindu, L., Moeletsi, M., Mkuhlani, S., Liben, F., ... & Mutenje, M. (2021). Temporal rainfall trend analysis in different agro-ecological regions of southern Africa. Water SA, 47(4), 466-479.
dc.identifier.issn0378-4738
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/7332
dc.description.abstractRainfall is a major driver of food production in rainfed smallholder farming systems. This study was conducted to assess linear trends in (i) different daily rainfall amounts (<5, 5–10, 11–20, 21–40 and >40 mm∙day-1), and (ii) monthly and seasonal rainfall amounts. Drought was determined using the rainfall variability index. Daily rainfall data were derived from 18 meteorological stations in southern Africa. Daily rainfall was dominated by <5 mm∙day-1 followed by 5–10 mm∙day -1. Three locations experienced increasing linear trends of <5 mm∙day-1 amounts and two others in sub-humid region had increases in the >40 mm day -1 category. Semi-arid location experienced increasing trends in <5 and 5–10 mm∙day-1 events. A significant linear trend in seasonal rainfall occurred at two locations with decreasing rainfall (1.24 and 3 mm∙season-1). A 3 mm∙season-1 decrease in seasonal rainfall was experienced under semi-arid conditions. There were no apparent linear trends in monthly and seasonal rainfall at 15 of the 18 locations studied. Drought frequencies varied with location and were 50% or higher during the November–March growing season. Rainfall trends were location and agro-ecology specific, but most of the locations studied did not experience significant changes between the 1900s and 2000s.
dc.description.sponsorshipCGIAR Fund Council
dc.format.extent466-479
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectAgriculture
dc.subjectRisk
dc.subjectDrought
dc.subjectRainfed
dc.subjectDistribution
dc.subjectFarming Systems
dc.subjectClimate-Smart Agriculture
dc.subjectRainfall
dc.titleTemporal rainfall trend analysis in different agro-ecological regions of southern Africa
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
cg.contributor.affiliationInstitute for Soil, Climate and Water, South Africa
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Cape Town
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Limpopo
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Africa
cg.coverage.countryZimbabwe
cg.coverage.hubEastern Africa Hub
cg.identifier.bibtexciteidMUPANGWA:2021
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country institute
cg.iitasubjectAgronomy
cg.iitasubjectClimate Change
cg.iitasubjectFarming Systems
cg.iitasubjectFood Security
cg.iitasubjectPlant Breeding
cg.iitasubjectPlant Production
cg.iitasubjectSmallholder Farmers
cg.journalWater SA
cg.notesOpen Access Article
cg.accessibilitystatusOpen Access
cg.reviewstatusPeer Review
cg.usagerightslicenseCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 0.0)
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i4.3844
cg.futureupdate.requiredNo
cg.identifier.issue4
cg.identifier.volume47
cg.contributor.acknowledgementsThis study has been embedded into the CGIAR Research Programme MAIZE, Flagship Sustainable intensification of smallholder farming systems. We acknowledge the CGIAR Fund Council and other donors for funding to the CGIAR Research Programme MAIZE. We thank the meteorological stations from the four countries for their contribution in generating rainfall data used in the study.


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