Southern Africa has been experiencing long-term changes in its climate and future projections imply that droughts should last longer and become more intense in southern Africa. Already, the region has been experiencing an increase in consecutive drought years. This study contributes to the literature by using bio-economic modeling to simulate the impact of future droughts on food security in southern Africa and identify plausible pathways for enhancing regional food security under drought. Food production and food security in southern Africa were projected under drought using an adjusted version of a multi-market and multi-commodity global model, the International Model for the Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), version 3.2. The results suggest that with moderate economic growth and no drought, southern Africa would not become wealthy enough to mitigate food insecurity by 2040. In this context, recurrent droughts would worsen food security by severely affecting the production of maize, the key staple food in the region. With consecutive two-year regional droughts, like what was experienced in 2014/15 and 2015/16, most countries would experience an increase of at least 10% in the number of people at risk of hunger within a single year. Key measures which could help enhance food security under droughts include (1) breeding for stress-resilient maize (resistance to both heat and drought stresses); (2) promote crop and diet diversification, especially in countries highly dependent on maize as a staple food crop; and (3) invest in rainwater harvesting.

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1159901

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Sika Dofonsou Gbegbelegbehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6373-6195

David Chikoyehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6047-9821

Arega Alenehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2491-4603

Godfree Chigezahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9235-0694

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1159901

Plant Production and Health; Social Science and Agribusiness

Agribusiness; Agronomy; Food Security; Maize; Plant Breeding; Plant Health; Plant Production

Food Security; Drought; Climate Change; Southern Africa

Africa; Southern Africa

Eswatini; Lesotho; Malawi; Mozambique; Namibia; South Africa; Zambia; Zimbabwe

Southern Africa Hub

Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems