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Strategic Foresight analysis of droughts in southern Africa and implications for food security

dc.contributor.authorGbegbelegbe, S.
dc.contributor.authorChikoye, D.
dc.contributor.authorAlene, A.
dc.contributor.authorKyei-Boahen, S.
dc.contributor.authorChigeza, G.
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
dc.date.available2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
dc.date.issued2024-02-14
dc.identifier.citationGbegbelegbe, S., Chikoye, D., Alene, A., Kyei-Boahen, S. & Chigeza, G. (2024). Strategic Foresight analysis of droughts in southern Africa and implications for food security. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 7: 1159901, 1-23.
dc.identifier.issn2571-581X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12478/8635
dc.description.abstractSouthern Africa has been experiencing long-term changes in its climate and future projections imply that droughts should last longer and become more intense in southern Africa. Already, the region has been experiencing an increase in consecutive drought years. This study contributes to the literature by using bio-economic modeling to simulate the impact of future droughts on food security in southern Africa and identify plausible pathways for enhancing regional food security under drought. Food production and food security in southern Africa were projected under drought using an adjusted version of a multi-market and multi-commodity global model, the International Model for the Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), version 3.2. The results suggest that with moderate economic growth and no drought, southern Africa would not become wealthy enough to mitigate food insecurity by 2040. In this context, recurrent droughts would worsen food security by severely affecting the production of maize, the key staple food in the region. With consecutive two-year regional droughts, like what was experienced in 2014/15 and 2015/16, most countries would experience an increase of at least 10% in the number of people at risk of hunger within a single year. Key measures which could help enhance food security under droughts include (1) breeding for stress-resilient maize (resistance to both heat and drought stresses); (2) promote crop and diet diversification, especially in countries highly dependent on maize as a staple food crop; and (3) invest in rainwater harvesting.
dc.description.sponsorshipCGIAR Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets
dc.format.extent1-23
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectFood Security
dc.subjectDrought
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectSouthern Africa
dc.titleStrategic Foresight analysis of droughts in southern Africa and implications for food security
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Institute of Tropical Agriculture
cg.coverage.regionAfrica
cg.coverage.regionSouthern Africa
cg.coverage.countryEswatini
cg.coverage.countryLesotho
cg.coverage.countryMalawi
cg.coverage.countryMozambique
cg.coverage.countryNamibia
cg.coverage.countrySouth Africa
cg.coverage.countryZambia
cg.coverage.countryZimbabwe
cg.coverage.hubSouthern Africa Hub
cg.researchthemePlant Production and Health
cg.researchthemeSocial Science and Agribusiness
cg.identifier.bibtexciteidGBEGBELEGBE:2024
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR Single Centre
cg.iitasubjectAgribusiness
cg.iitasubjectAgronomy
cg.iitasubjectFood Security
cg.iitasubjectMaize
cg.iitasubjectPlant Breeding
cg.iitasubjectPlant Health
cg.iitasubjectPlant Production
cg.journalFrontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
cg.notesOpen Access Journal
cg.accessibilitystatusOpen Access
cg.reviewstatusPeer Review
cg.usagerightslicenseCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 0.0)
cg.targetaudienceScientists
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1159901
cg.iitaauthor.identifierSika Dofonsou Gbegbelegbe: 0000-0001-6373-6195
cg.iitaauthor.identifierDavid Chikoye: 0000-0002-6047-9821
cg.iitaauthor.identifierArega Alene: 0000-0002-2491-4603
cg.iitaauthor.identifierGodfree Chigeza: 0000-0002-9235-0694
cg.futureupdate.requiredNo
cg.identifier.issue1159901
cg.identifier.volume7


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